WP 8: Short term forecasts and early warning

General Information

Work package 8 will develop econometric tools for short-term forecasts and early warning systems for the most relevant agricultural commodities, with an explicit assessment of model uncertainty.

Further, it will develop tools for policy design aiming at the short-term stabilization of agricultural commodity markets.


Latest Publication

Deliverable 8.4: Early warning systems for commodity markets

An agricultural commodity price and price volatility forecasting modelling system has been developed and applied for four agricultural commodities to perform forecasts on a horizon spanning from three months to one year. The forecasting system can be used as an early warning system based on seasonal and decadal simulated weather and climate forecasts in combination with financial and macro-economic projections.

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Newsletter 1

The first Newsletter of 2016 on project updates and informative SUSFANS research

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Deliverable 8.2: Preliminary report on Task 8.2: prices forecasting model

We present a comprehensive modelling framework aimed at obtaining shortterm forecasts of commodity prices.

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Deliverable 8.1: The decomposition of agricultural commodity markets volatility between fundamentals and market speculation

We analyse the role played by market fundamentals, speculation and macroeconomic conditions as empirical determinants of commodity price changes. We combine model averaging techniques to explain historical patterns with an in-depth analysis of out-ofsample predictability of commodity prices using fundamentals as well as macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that variables related to global macroeconomic and financial developments contain valuable information to explain the historical pattern of coffee price developments, as well as to improve out-of-sample predictions of coffee prices.

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News in work package 8

Food and nutrition security: Early warning systems for commodity markets

The state of food security and the stability of the food system can be summarized and measured by food price pressure as well as food price volatility. In this way changes in food prices and their volatility can be used as early warning indicators. SUSFANS researchers of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis illustrate in a new report the capacity of an econometric system to provide such services.

Understand the interaction of Food Price Volatility. Brazils Coffee market as an example

Volatile food prices have considerable impact on food security, sparkling riots and contributing to political instability, as past shows. Research so far has shown that volatility is caused by a combination of factors like trade restrictions, financial speculations or even an expanding population, biofuel-policies and weather effects.